CC
Carlyle Credit Income Fund (CCIF)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 GAAP net investment income per share was $0.23, adjusted NII was $0.26, and core NII was $0.27; total investment income was $8.565M and NAV per share was $6.98 .
- The fund maintained its monthly dividend at $0.105 through August (18.75% annualized on the 5/16/25 price); declared dates and pay dates were set for June–August .
- Results were pressured by loan repricings (-12bps in weighted average spread) and 18% of the portfolio diverting payments to fund accretive resets/refis; recurring cash flows fell to $0.49 per share but rebounded to ~$0.62 in Q3 2025 commentary .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, CCIF missed on EPS ($0.23 vs $0.2625) and revenue ($8.565M vs $9.041M); 4 estimates were tracked for each metric (Values retrieved from S&P Global)*.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Completed 13 accretive refinancings/resets, extending the weighted average remaining CLO reinvestment period from 2.5 to 3.1 years; portfolio WA GAAP yield was 16.48% and cash yield on quarterly payments was 22.67% .
- Capital markets execution: $18.6M net from 7.50% convertible preferreds and $12.2M net from ATM common issuance at a premium to NAV, adding ~$0.02 NAV accretion per share in the quarter .
- Management emphasized resilience: “Our second quarter results reflect the resilient nature of the loan and CLO market… we continue to focus on optimizing our CLO positions including completing 13 accretive refinancings and resets” — Nishil Mehta .
What Went Wrong
- Loan repricing and macro volatility: weighted average spread declined an additional 12bps; CLO primary spreads widened in April on tariff concerns before starting to retrace; resets/refis slowed until liabilities tighten further .
- 18% of the portfolio did not make payments as quarterly cash flows were redirected to fund resets/refis and some primary issuances had not yet made initial distributions, reducing CNII and recurring cash flows in Q2 .
- NAV marked lower intra-quarter as third-party valuation agent raised discount rates in DCFs amid market volatility; management noted daily NAVs rebounded as markets rallied post-quarter end .
Financial Results
Income Statement Metrics (per share) and Investment Income
Consensus vs Actual (Q2 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global*
KPIs and Portfolio Metrics
Guidance Changes
Dividend record/payable dates and amounts detailed in the release .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our second quarter results reflect the resilient nature of the loan and CLO market… we continue to focus on optimizing our CLO positions including completing 13 accretive refinancings and resets” — Nishil Mehta (PEO/President) .
- “CLO primary spreads widened further in April, following harsher than anticipated tariff announcements… we anticipate a slowdown in both CLO resets and refinancings until spreads tighten further” — Lauren Basmadjian (Chair, Global Head of Liquid Credit) .
- “Adjusted net investment income… was $4.6 million or $0.26 per share… core net investment income… was $0.27 per share. The decline… was attributable to approximately 18% of the portfolio not making payments [to fund resets/refis and primary issuances not yet making initial distributions]” — Nelson Joseph (CFO) .
- “Our net asset value… is based on a bid-side mark we receive from a third party on 100% of the CLO portfolio… we have seen a rebound in the NAV as the market has rebounded as well” — Nishil Mehta .
Q&A Highlights
- Repricing headwind and payment diversion: Management quantified a 12bps spread decline from repricings and clarified 18% of positions diverted payments to fund resets/refis (mainly January), with repricing activity halted amid volatility, reducing expected drag in Q3 .
- Out-of-court restructurings: Elevated vs history; expected to remain dominant over in-court processes; vintage (2021 LBOs) and higher-rate environment are key drivers; CCIF’s platform strength in workouts noted as advantage .
- Primary vs secondary deployment: Relative value similar given retracement; targeting low-to-mid teens returns with sufficient reinvestment periods; active in both markets .
- NAV dynamics: April NAV decline was market-driven (loan price drop and higher valuation yields); daily NAVs have since rebounded alongside markets; liquidation of an underperforming 2021 CLO was idiosyncratic .
- Healthcare exposure: Monitoring potential budget-related impacts (NIH/FDA/DOGE programs); risks seen as idiosyncratic; portfolio interest coverage strong with <3% of borrowers <1x .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 EPS: $0.23 actual vs $0.2625 consensus (4 estimates) — miss; Revenue: $8.565M actual vs $9.041M consensus (4 estimates) — miss (Values retrieved from S&P Global)*.
- Estimate revisions may need to reflect lower recurring cash flows tied to payment diversion for resets/refis in Q2 and repricing drag, offset by Q3 rebound (~$0.62 per share recurring cash flows) and extended reinvestment periods .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Dividend stability looks supported by CNII and cash-on-cash yields despite Q2 headwinds; declared $0.105 monthly through August with high implied yield on market price .
- Near-term earnings optics may improve as repricing activity stalls amid volatility and as payment diversion normalizes post-resets/refis; management flagged reduced repricing drag and Q3 recurring cash flow rebound .
- Portfolio optimization continues to extend reinvestment runway, enhancing ability to build par and capture wider asset spreads during volatility; WA reinvestment rose to 3.1 years, OC cushions remained healthy .
- Daily NAVs are sensitive to market marks and valuation assumptions; recent rebound suggests technicals rather than fundamental deterioration drove April NAV dip .
- Capital formation remains accretive (ATM at premium, convertible preferreds at 7.50%); scaling could improve liquidity and trading profile while modestly increasing leverage (0.38x) .
- Credit metrics remain better than market (LTM default incl. exchanges ~1.3% vs market ~4%); CCC and sub-80 exposures modest and trending down .
- Tactical positioning: Favor defensively structured CLOs with ample reinvestment period and stronger managers; monitor tariff/macro headlines for liability spread moves that could re-open reset/refi windows .
Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted NII excludes non-cash amortization of deferred issuance costs/OID on preferreds; CNII adjusts GAAP NII for CLO equity effective yield differences and non-cash amortization to better reflect recurring cash generation .
Values retrieved from S&P Global*